Decision Analysis for Management Judgment, 3rd Edition
Paul Goodwin,
George Wright
ISBN: 978-0-470-86108-0
Paperback
492 pages
March 2004
Wiley List Price: US $75.00
Paul Goodwin is Senior Lecturer in Management Science in the Management School at the University of Bath. His research interests focus on the role of management judgment in forecasting and decision-making, and he has published in key journals in the field. He is an Associate Editor of the
International Journal of Forecasting and a member of the editorial board of the
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. He has consulted with firms such as British Telecom and South Western Electricity.
George Wright is a psychologist with an interest in the role and validity of judgment in decision making and forecasting. He is especially interested in the use of management science- and behaviorally-based methods to improve decision-making. He has published in key journals, and is the Editor of the
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. He has consulted with firms such as IBM, ICL, NEC, Petronas, Jordan Ministry of Planning, and the Scottish Football Association.
Decription
In an increasingly complex world, decision analysis plays a key role in helping managers gain a greater understanding of the situations they face. This updated classic offers unrivalled coverage of the problems associated with unaided managerial decision making and the methods designed to overcome them, all presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner. The
Third Edition is extensively updated and reflects new developments such as 'fast and frugal heuristics' and "structured risk management". A new website will offer links, additional exercises and case studies, and downloadable Excel spreadsheets.
Table of Contents
Foreword Lawrence D. Phillips.
Preface.
Chapter 1: Introduction.
Chapter 2: How people make decisions involving multiple objectives.
Chapter 3: Decisions involving multiple objectives: SMART.
Chapter 4: Introduction to probability.
Chapter 5: Decision making under uncertainty.
Chapter 6: Decision trees and influence diagrams.
Chapter 7: Applying simulation to decision problems.
Chapter 8: Revising judgments in the light of new information.
Chapter 9: Biases in probability assessment.
Chapter 10: Methods for eliciting probabilities.
Chapter 11: Risk and uncertainty management.
Chapter 12: Decisions involving groups of individuals.
Chapter 13: Resource allocation and negotiation problems.
Chapter 14: Decision framing and cognitive inertia.
Chapter 15: Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty.
Chapter 16: The analytic hierarchy process.
Chapter 17: Alternative decision-support systems.
Suggested answers to selected questions.
Index.
